What Happened To The 2025 Sockeye Run Headed To Brewster?

By Andy Walgamott July 17, 2025 HEADLINES 0 Comments

By Rick Itami

Sockeye anglers who enjoyed a record run of three quarters of a million fish returning to the Columbia River in 2024 were hopeful for another fishing bonanza in 2025. An early prediction for a run of 350,200 sockeye in 2025, while far less than the previous year, was still enough to provide a decent fishery.

THIS YEAR’S LOWER THAN EXPECTED RETURN OF SOCKEYE TO THE UPPER COLUMBIA COULD BE LINKED TO THE HAMMER BLOW THAT BEFELL THEIR PARENTS IN 2021 AS THEY SWAM THROUGH AN OVERHEATED COLUMBIA RIVER SYSTEM. THIS ONE WAS CAUGHT NEAR TRI-CITIES IN THE DAYS BEFORE THAT YEAR’S RECORD-SETTING HEAT DOME BROILED THE REGION. (KNIFE PHOTO CONTEST)

But then things started going south and fisheries managers saw far less sockeye moving through Bonneville Dam than expected. They lowered the predicted run size to 183,200 in early July, limited fishing beginning July 9 to Wednesday through Saturday and dropped the daily bag limit from four to two sockeye. Managers subsequently lowered their run expectations to 172,400 back to the mouth of the Columbia.

According to DART adult passage counts, from June 1 to July 14, 2025, only 32,983 sockeye passed through Wells Dam, compared with 334,650 for the same period in 2024 and the 10-year average of 138,654.

Disappointed anglers are asking what happened to the 2025 sockeye run headed for Canada.

Chad Jackson, WDFW’s Region 2 Fish Program manager out of Ephrata, says sockeye runs have historically been difficult to predict, but he offered a couple of reasons why this year’s sockeye run is lower than forecasted.

Pink salmon compete for the same ocean food as sockeye and have been increasing in numbers for the last 15 years. Jackson points out that Japan and Russia have built pink salmon hatcheries that release tens of millions of pink salmon into the Pacific Ocean. He says this negatively affects both sockeye salmon and steelhead numbers.

A MAP FROM A COLUMBIA RIVER INTER-TRIBAL FISH COMMISSION PAPER THAT LOOKED INTO 2021’S RUN PERFORMANCE SHOWS HOW FEWER AND FEWER SPECIALLY PIT-TAGGED ADULT SOCKEYE PRIMARILY RETURNING TO LAKE WENATCHEE AND THE OKANAGAN RIVER TURNED UP AT DAMS ABOVE BONNEVILLE, WHERE THEY WERE INITIALLY CAPTURED. WHILE SOME OF THE MORTALITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO FISHERIES ALONG THE WAY, THAT YEAR FEATURED HOT WATER AND LOW FLOWS IN THE COLUMBIA, WHICH GENERALLY ARE NOT A GOOD COMBINATION FOR COLD-WATER-LOVING SOCKEYE. (CRITFC)

Jackson says another reason for this year’s low run is the low escapement of roughly 19,300 adults in 2021. He also says there could have been bad lake conditions in Canada for spawning adults that same year.

Climate change is another issue that affects sockeye return numbers. Warming river temperatures can have a devastating effect on sockeye, as evidenced in 2015, when half the run of sockeye died in the Columbia River. Warming of ocean and river water temperatures could have a significant effect in the future.

Most anglers who fish the Brewster Pool are familiar with the thermal block that the Okanogan River creates when river temperatures can exceed 80 degrees. This causes sockeye to stage in the Brewster pool for several weeks or months waiting for the Okanogan River to cool sufficiently to allow sockeye to safely migrate to their Canadian spawning grounds.

A C.R.I.T.F.C. TABLE SHOWS ANNUAL PERCENTAGES OF SPECIALLY TAGGED ADULT SOCKEYE THAT MADE IT TO WELLS DAM, WHICH BACKS UP THE BREWSTER POOL AT THE MOUTH OF THE OKANOGAN. THE 2021 RETURN SAW THE SECOND LOWEST SURVIVAL RATE TO WELLS DAM AS WELL AS TO THE CANADIAN SPAWNING GROUNDS. (CRITFC)

Jackson says the Upper Columbia public utility districts plan to start a pilot study this year in which a couple truckloads of adult sockeye will be transported to hatcheries in the upper Okanogan River to see if this improves survival of adults versus fish that must wait to navigate the Okanogan until river temperatures lower to safe levels.

Many of my friends who normally fish the Brewster Pool for sockeye this time of year say they aren’t going to bother this year with so few fish and a paltry two-fish limit. The Brewster King Salmon Derby has even been cancelled for this year.

JUST BECAUSE ONE YEAR PRODUCES A BONKERS RETURN DOESN’T MEAN THE NEXT WILL FOLLOW SUIT OR EVEN COME ANYWHERE CLOSE. UPPER COLUMBIA SOCKEYE MOSTLY RUN ON A FOUR-YEAR LIFECYCLE, SO THE PRODUCTIVE RIVER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS THAT ONE YEAR’S CLASS MIGHT ENJOY MAY BE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FOR THE NEXT YEAR’S. DIALING IN ALL THE VARIABLES WITH THESE RELATIVELY NEW RUNS IS STILL A WORK IN PROGRESS FOR SALMON FORECASTERS. (KNIFE PHOTO CONTEST)

Despite all the bad news about this year’s poor sockeye run, Jackson says that fishermen in the know are catching sockeye in the Brewster Pool. Of course, there are good and bad days, but with a three-day rest each week under the new rules, Wednesday is usually the best day to catch sockeye.

What is puzzling about the 2025 sockeye fishery in Washington is the run size of sockeye headed through Brewster is extremely low while on the other side of the North Cascades the Baker Lake sockeye run is now expected to set a record this year. Obviously, more research is needed to figure out why this sort of thing can happen.

Editor’s note: Rick Itami is a retired Spokane-based angler who writes occasional articles for Northwest Sportsman and other publications about fisheries he enjoys, from Hells Canyon springers and summer steelhead to Oregon Coast fall Chinook.

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Andy Walgamott