Columbia Sockeye Run Downgraded

Sometimes more fish come back than expected, and sometimes fewer do.

While this year’s Columbia spring Chinook run exceeded the preseason forecast, allowing extended fishing, unfortunately, the big river’s sockeye return is not following suit. The US v. Oregon Technical Advisory Committee yesterday downgraded expectations by about half and now only expect 183,200 back to the mouth this year.

The preseason forecast was for 350,200, which is a bit more than the 10-year average, but from the get-go in late May, daily counts have been well below the pace needed to get there.

Monday’s update was based on the run so far and “discussion of the output from several Bonneville Dam passage projection models,” per TAC. The run typically reaches its halfway point and peak around June 26-28.

The revised forecast is quite a dropoff from last year’s bonkers record return of 761,682 sockeye, which served up good fishing on the Lower Columbia, at Tri-Cities and up at the Brewster Pool.

The Upper Columbia fishery is operated on a quota based off the preseason forecast and the bag limit was initially set at four for this season. Today marks the opener on much of these waters, and anglers are already hooking fish off the mouth of the Okanogan.

This morning, Dave Graybill, the Northcentral Washington fishing writer and former Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission member, posted on his FishingMagician.com Facebook page, “The WDFW is looking for ways to keep anglers on the water fishing for sockeye as long as possible.”

The Columbia sockeye run is comprised of several different stocks. Most head for the Okanogan/Okanagan River, and they’re mostly 3- and 4-year-old fish. A strong component also returns to Lake Wenatchee, and those are typically 4- and 5-year-olds.

Since 2008 and the explosion of the run, Columbia sockeye have exhibited a pretty strong up-down trend, with even years producing more fish than the odd years before and afterwards. The exception to that rule is 2015, though that run ultimately got poached by hot water in the mid-Columbia caused by The Blob’s snow drought and early summer high temperatures. 2021’s return – the parent class of much of this year’s fish – also faced a similar problem with the record-breaking late June and early July heat dome. While 151,000-plus sockeye entered the river that year, only 76,855 made it past Priest Rapids Dam.

Much smaller runs return to the Yakima, Snake and Deschutes.

The management goal for Upper Columbia sockeye is for at least 65,000 past Priest Rapids Dam, the first above the Snake, and that typically requires at least 75,000 at McNary Dam, below the tributary.

While this year’s run is likely to now still come in as the 15th largest to the mouth of the Columbia in the 45 years since 1980, it will also rank as the fourth smallest since 2008.

On the flip side, TAC did upgrade the summer Chinook forecast to 40,200, up from 38,000.

“Highly likely is the opening of the Entiat River,” Graybill posted, “and there is the possibility of some very short bubble fisheries later in July. It is important to keep an eye out for any emergency regulation announcements. This sockeye season is very fluid.”

TAC also now expects the Skamania summer steelhead return to be “lower than the forecasted value of 6,500 adult fish (2,600 natural origin).”

The committee will meet again next Monday.