2024 Northwest Deer Forecast: Washington, Oregon, Idaho Prospects

This coming weekend marks the start of the first of the Northwest’s three primary general deer seasons as Oregon riflemen take the field in search of bucks, followed by Idaho then Washington later in October.

So what can deer hunters expect? Each fall, local biologists and wildlife managers with ODFW, IDFG and WDFW put together their season prospects, and below is a synopsis of what they’re forecasting, along with new chronic wasting disease information to be aware of.

WASHINGTON

Head southwest, young man. That might be the advice to Washington deer hunters about a region whose blacktail population is steadily rising and which saw units in the Castle Rock-Longview area produce a significant harvest bump last fall.

East of the Cascades, whitetail and mule deer populations are continuing a long, slow recovery from big disease outbreaks and drought conditions that impacted harvest and fawn production earlier this decade. There are other good signs too. 

Here are Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife district biologists’ preseason forecasts:

NORTHEAST With no big disease outbreaks this year, harvest in this rumpled, forested corner of the state could see a “moderate increase,” biologists are predicting. That’s potential good news for important hunting units where the take has been depressed since 2021’s big epizootic hemorrhagic disease/bluetongue outbreak.

Bios say that last winter was “mild” with likely high survival rates for deer, and that should mean more spikes and forked horns on the landscape in this any-whitetail-buck region. As a reminder, does are still off limits for all weapons groups as state managers try to rebuild the herd.

Factoring in harvest, bucks killed per square mile and hunter numbers and density, the top three rifle units over the past three years have been Kelly Hill, Huckleberry and Aladdin. 

In response to chronic wasting disease cases in North Idaho and outside Spokane, WDFW continues to boost availability of testing at game check stations, dropoff locations and agency offices in the area.

“We are strongly encouraging folks to have their deer sampled in District 1, though it is not mandatory in Game Management Units 101-121,” urges Annemarie Prince, district wildlife bio in Colville.

SPOKANE/PALOUSE The good news is that mule deer herds are back near their longterm averages in this district spanning the Channelled Scablands, Palouse and Snake River Breaks. While mortality due to 2021’s drought and heat wave likely left a hole in one year-class of bucks that would be legal this year, the next two years saw above-average winter survival that “may help offset” that loss with some early-blooming two-by-threes, WDFW forecasts.

As for whitetails, however, their numbers are “still down significantly” from past disease outbreaks and hard winters. 

Overall, some units have started to see harvest bounce back from nadirs in 2021 and 2022. Per WDFW’s rankings, the top rifle units over the past half decade in this largely privately owned district are Mount Spokane, Almota, Harrington and Steptoe. Note that new this year, CWD testing is required for all deer (as well as elk and moose) harvested in the Mount Spokane, Mica Peak and Cheney Units.

BLUE MOUNTAINS Biologists have been expecting the herds in Southeast Washington to bounce back for several years now, given a string of average to mild winters, but a “modest increase” in harvest seen last fall still fell below long-term averages. That said, “With good growing conditions last spring and an average winter, we expect overwinter survival was good, and are expecting deer harvest to marginally improve again through the 2024 hunting season.”

Bios here use similar measures as districts to the north to rank their deer hunting units, but they also fold public access into the equation. Their math shows the Mayview, Peola and Couse Units score the best, though they are also pretty light on state and federal ground. Notably, mountain units are seeing steady to decreasing days needed to kill a deer.

Note that general season antlerless whitetail ops have been curtailed for this and the next two seasons to try and rebuild deer numbers. They could be reinstated by 2027 for youth, senior and disabled hunters if herds show a response. 

OKANOGAN Close your eyes, Northcentral Washington deer hunters, biologists issued a not-so-great forecast for legal buck availability in District 6, the Okanogan. “Slightly lower-than-average estimated fawn recruitment in 2023 likely means a modest decrease in the 2.5-year-old buck cohort in 2024,” they state. “Similarly, last December’s observed post-season mule deer buck:doe ratio of 17:100 is below the 10-year average of 21:100. Overall, total general season harvest and success rates are anticipated to be a little below the five-year averages.”

The better news is that the mule deer herd is “poised” to recover, thanks to strong fawn productivity last fall (five points above the 10-year average) and “best it’s been in 10 years” overwinter survival of that year-class of young muleys, good signs for 2025 barring a bad winter.

Biologists here don’t rank their units like those elsewhere, but Wannacut, Pogue, Chiliwist and East Okanogan have seen the highest average success rates for riflemen the past five seasons, with East Okanogan, Sinlahekin and Chewuch yielding 2023’s largest buck harvests. True, East Okanogan is huge, which explains how kill there was three times as large as either of those next two units, but it also has a great mixture of public and private land.

CHELAN/DOUGLAS Chelan County surveys last December turned up a gaudy 29 bucks per 100 does, 4 points above the management goal and the best seen in periodic surveys since at least 2016. But fawn:doe ratios have been dropping over the same timeframe and hunters say they’re seeing fewer deer in the woods, yielding a puzzling picture that has biologists restricting antlerless harvest opportunities (mostly early archery) to build the herd back up. Meanwhile, as ever, this fall will probably come down to whether or not the weather is bad enough in the heights to drive this largely migratory herd to more huntable ground in the popular Entiat and Swakane Units.

Across the Columbia, biologists also continue to scratch their heads about the Douglas County herd. While buck:doe ratios are still within the management objective of 15-19:100, last year’s fawn count of 48:100 does was a “considerable departure” from the five-year average. It coincides with a longer term herd decline noticed by hunters and landowners and has biologists reducing antlerless and second deer ops. Even so, the county is still considered “good mule deer hunting” – look for areas of sagebrush or broken country near aglands and use WDFW’s private-lands access program to find cooperating ranchers and farmers.

SOUTHCENTRAL Deer hunting in Yakima and Kittitas Counties has been down in the dumps for so long that we simply haven’t reported on it most recent years, but for the record, last year’s harvest was the largest since 2015, and what’s more, the number of five-plus-pointers taken was the most back to the same year, indicative of decent numbers of mature bucks. That said, modern firearm success rates in 2023 were still all in the single digits outside of the Teanaway Unit. Bios do report that back to back harsh winters “did not appear to increase” mortality among radio-collared deer, so perhaps that’s a glimmer of further hope.

To the south, biologists say December 2023 surveys in Grayback and East Klickitat showed a “slight increase in the population” after fall seasons that were less productive than 2022’s. Fewer hunters hit both units last fall, but their success rates and days per kill both actually improved. Fawn surveys in Grayback this past March showed average overwinter survival. Antlerless ops in the above two units plus West Klickitat have also been mostly been paused to help the herd recover; harvests in all three are still 100 to 200 animals below levels seen in the robust mid-2010s.

WESTSIDE You won’t find this sort of bald-faced optimism on the 509 side of Washington, but on the back of a very strong 2023 season that saw a harvest of roughly 1,000 more blacktails than 2022 – 3,531 (including 2,838 with a rifle), the most in more than a decade – Cowlitz-Elochoman district biologists say deer hunting “should be good again in 2024.” That’s thanks to a stable to increasing deer population that also isn’t at the whims of wildlife diseases, mercurial winters or drought like Eastside herds are. Lincoln, Winston and Coweeman all boasted harvest densities greater than one buck per square mile, though the percentage of three-point-or-better animals was lower in them than elsewhere in the district.

Deer harvest to the north is also on a long-term increasing trend, and last year saw notable spikes in kill and success rates in the Puyallup and Skookumchuck Units. Biologists cite decreasing hunter numbers since 2000, which of course is tied to private timberlands charging for access and limiting entry.

Elsewhere on the Westside, harvest remains depressed in North Sound island units following a 2020-21 disease outbreak. And it continues steady on the South Coast/western Willapa Hills. But heads up that new ownership of private timberlands in the upper Elochoman Valley will severely impact local access, per a local source.

OREGON

Oregon’s any legal weapon deer seasons doesn’t start and run quite as late as last year, but there is still plenty of opportunity to get out after bucks in the coming weeks.

Generally speaking, winter survival was good and fawn recruitment was average to good, which will supply a fresh crop of legal bucks across the state. Blacktails continue to thrive west of the Cascades, whitetails in the far northeast corner, but there’s no papering over the fact that mule deer populations remain depressed across Central and Eastern Oregon. Inside those lower numbers, buck-to-doe ratios are largely meeting objectives, but there are just fewer of them on the landscape. Biologists point to “habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, predation, disease and roadkill,” among other factors.

A big issue for many hunters east of the Cascades this fall will be navigating 2024’s record wildfires that burned 1.9 million acres of forest and range land. So-called “mega fires,” those of 100,000-plus acres, hit seven units and had the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife outlining its points reinstatement program for hunters burned out of their controlled draw unit.

With rifle seasons on both sides of the Cascades opening October 5, here’s a look at what agency biologists are predicting.

NORTH COAST Deer densities are described as “moderate” in the three northern coastal units, Saddle Mountain, Wilson and western Trask, all of which also featured benchmark buck escapements of 20:100 does following last year’s seasons. As such, biologists say the trio will offer “decent” prospects for hunters prowling the myriad newer clearcuts on state forests and accessible private timberlands. 

Further south, buck densities are around or slightly below the five-year average in the Stott Mountain, Alsea and Siuslaw Units, with fawn ratios coming out of last winter above average in the first two units but below in the third. 

WILLAMETTE Surveys last fall found buck ratios in the Scappoose and eastern Trask Units slightly below the 20:100 does objective, but they essentially match the five-year average, so hunters probably won’t notice a big difference. 

The story is better in the northern Santiam Unit, where densities are at benchmark, and what’s more, prospects are considered “good” for those willing to hunt the thick stuff blacktails call home this time of year. Biologists report that “many large bucks” were still alive and kicking on the landscape after last year’s late-running season, and given a relatively easy winter, the animals should still be available this fall. Bucks are also meeting objective in the southern Santiam Unit.

SOUTHERN OREGON Biologists continue to say that deer populations in the Tioga, Powers and Sixes Units are high compared to what they were in the early 2000s, but add that they may have begun to level off. Inland, surveys in Douglas County found good overwinter survival with stable to increasing fawn ratios observed in the Dixon, Indigo and Melrose Units over recent years, making for potentially more young bucks on the landscape. As elsewhere, open corporate forestlands are considered to be more productive than state or federal equivalents.

Down in the southwest corner pocket of the state, average buck densities the past three years are above benchmarks, and some units have gaudy success rates to prove it – 47 percent in Evans Creek, 41 percent in Chetco and 39 percent in Applegate last year. Given the steady harvest figures over that general timeframe, biologists forecast “this year should be the same.”

NORTHCENTRAL Expect a “surplus of young bucks” in the western Biggs Unit, thanks to a milder winter. Biologists point to the north end of the John Day River canyon and surrounding lands as particularly promising for hunters with permission to hunt private lands or who can access the scattered federal ground. Next door to the west, fall surveys turned up 34 bucks:100 does in the Maupin Unit, “significantly higher” than the longterm average. While bios acknowledge the unit is dominated by farms and ranches, last month’s cover was of a public-lands buck Buzz Ramsey tagged here last October after eight hard days of hunting, and his son tagged out too, so it’s not outside the realm.

In the White River Unit, the rebound from a mid-2010s disease dieoff continues. Fawn and buck ratios topped the 10-year average and management goals, respectively, last fall. And in the next watershed to the west, biologists’ new trail camera surveys suggest there’s an “abundance” of bucks tucked into the thicker brush of the Hood Unit. The reopening of Green Diamond’s Columbia Basin Management Area as fire danger drops should help hunters’ cause, but don’t overlook county forests.

UPPER DESCHUTES Managers report buck ratios near the 20:100 does goal in Maury, Ochoco and Grizzly Units, with notably “high” fawn production seen again in the third following an all-time low in 2022. In the next district to the south, which encompasses the Upper Deschutes, Paulina, Metolius and northern Wagontire Units, there’s an overall average of 25 bucks per 100 does on the landscape, which is near to above the objective, and last winter left a “stable” 57 fawns per 100 does.

SOUTHCENTRAL It’s not much to write home about, but fawn ratios in the Keno, Klamath Falls, Sprague, Fort Rock and western Interstate Units were at or close to what biologists describe as the “maintenance level” for herd sizes for a second consecutive year, marking a shift from prior years. It’s a glimmer of good news, given that last year’s fawns power more than half of the following year’s harvest.

To the east, buck ratios are “strong” in the eastern Interstate, fawn ratios are up in the Silver Lake Unit and were the “highest in several years”in the Warner Unit, which could mean more yearling bucks on the ground. In Harney County and adjacent areas, biologists report above-average buck ratios coming out of last season, but they only expect average success this fall. And in a good-news story, the Beulah Unit is “finally showing measurable deer recovery” since a severe winter eight years ago, and fawn recruitment was up this spring.

NORTHEAST In the upper John Day River country, deer numbers are expected to be about the same as last year, but a series of big fires in the Fossil and Heppner Units may have moved them around substantially. Also likely to be moved around: deer camps after said blazes burned big chunks of accessible national forest. 

The Murderers Creek Unit also saw a couple largescale fires on primarily public land, but biologists were forecasting that last year’s above-average results might repeat this fall. They predicted below-average success will be seen again in Northside and Desolation.

In the La Grande area, buck numbers are above goal in the Catherine Creek, Starkey and Mount Emily Units, and fawn recruitment coming out of last winter is described as “good.”

Whitetails are doing good in Wallowa and Union County units, and while muleys are below objective there, fawns experienced good survival coming out of last winter. But on the northwest face of the Blues in Umatilla County, whitetail numbers still haven’t recovered from a devastating disease outbreak five years ago now. Mule deer buck ratios are at or above objective.

FINAL NOTE The Oregon Hunters Association and ODFW have teamed up to encourage sportsmen to get their deer and elk tested for chronic wasting disease with a drawing for a rifle or scope.

Testing is available at the Baker City, Celilo Park, Elgin and Prineville game checks during opening weekends of deer and elk seasons, at meat processors and taxidermists, and ODFW offices via appointment or by dropping off heads in a collection barrel. 

The prizes are an incentive to help identify infected areas early to slow or stop the fatal deer family disease from spreading. As a reminder, hunters are required to stop at a check station along their route if they are transporting game.

IDAHO

While mule deer numbers in eastern portions of Idaho continue to recover from the “catastrophic” winter of 2022-23, hunters elsewhere have “some reason for optimism, especially in the west and central parts of the state” for the species, and there’s also good news for whitetails. Where last year’s muley harvest saw a 5,000-animal decline, the flagtail take rose and without any major bluetongue or EHD outbreaks like in 2021 just before season, this fall is again looking positive.

“I like where we’re at this year with whitetails, and while not fully recovered, I am hopeful hunters will see more of them in the Clearwater Region, and similar numbers in the Panhandle and elsewhere,” said Toby Boudreau, IDFG statewide deer coordinator, in his agency’s 2024 forecast.

NORTH AND WESTERN IDAHO Speaking of the Panhandle, managers saw “good over-winter survival of fawns and adults,” and they point to Units 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6, which make up half of the state’s top 10 units for whitetails. Be aware that Unit 1 is also the site of a new CWD outbreak; along with confirmation in a dead deer near Bonners Ferry, the disease was found in two other whitetails taken during a special surveillance hunt.

To the south, harvest trends and hunter success in the Clearwater indicate “robust” whitetail numbers, and IDFG says that rising hunter harvest and success rates in Units 8, 8a and 11 in the Moscow-Lewiston-Orofino area show the herd is “recovering well” from that dieoff three years ago. “White-tailed deer hunting opportunities are plentiful across the region, and hunters should experience high-quality hunting conditions this season,” biologists say.

While Unit 15 has been removed from the CWD Management Zone around Grangeville and White Bird after extensive testing found no infected animals there, Unit 18 to the southwest along Hells Canyon has been added and any deer taken there or in Unit 14 must be tested.

In the Weiser-McCall region, there should be “good numbers” of spike and better mule deer on the landscape, thanks to 90 percent fawn survival coming out of last winter – the highest in all of Idaho – and four previous winters with above-average survival rates. Whitetails are described as “stable to slightly increasing,” with best densities in the northern part of the region.

Note that CWD testing is now also mandatory for all deer taken in Units 23, 24 and 32a following last fall’s confirmation of the disease in a buck harvested near New Meadows.

BOISE AND OWYHEES Mule deer recruitment in popular and productive Unit 39 east of Idaho’s capital city took a big blow due to the winter of 2022-23, but postseason surveys late last year saw rising buck numbers and a “substantial increase” in fawn:doe ratios. IDFG says hunters are likely to see “increased numbers of young bucks and a similar number of mature bucks compared to last year.”

To the south in the Owyhees, biologists say to expect “similar” hunting to recent seasons. And in southcentral Idaho’s Magic Valley, “excellent” fawn survival should mean more young bucks on the landscape.