2025 Columbia River Spring Chinook, Other Forecasts Posted

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE 2:10 P.M. DECEMBER 11, 2024, THE 2025 SPRING CHINOOK FORECAST FOR THE COLUMBIA MOUTH HAS BEEN REISSUED BY STATE MANAGERS AFTER A SPREADSHEET ERROR LED THEM TO DOUBLE COUNT SOME FISH. THE ACTUAL FORECAST IS 217,500. SEE THIS UPDATE – THE EDITOR

Columbia salmon managers are forecasting a bit of a bump with next year’s spring Chinook return, predicting just over a quarter of a million of the fish will enter the big river in 2025, up from 2024’s forecast of 205,600 and actual return of 217,658.

If the preseason prognostication of 254,100 adult hatchery and wild springers comes to pass, it would be the largest run since 2022, third most since 2016, eighth since 2010 and 13th since 2000.

Notably, however, the critical Snake River portion of the forecast is below last year’s forecast and actual return, with some 56,200 hatchery and wild fish expected in 2025.

The forecast reveal marks the kick off of next year’s season-setting process, and from it managers later this winter will set fisheries based on the 30 percent runsize buffer to the upriver forecast, percentage of ESA-listed wild Snake River fish in the mix and nontribal allocations.

On the good side of the ledger, the Willamette forecast of 51,200 overall springers is up from last year’s preseason guess, and thanks to an expected 36,600 hatchery fish, ODFW should allow two-rod fishing again. The cutoff to be able to do so and still meet broodstock goals is a forecast of 34,000. Recent years’ returns haven’t been living up to preseason hype, however.

WDFW also put out springer forecasts and comparisons for Washington-side tributaries on the Lower Columbia and Columbia gorge, stating:

The 2025 Cowlitz River spring Chinook forecast to the tributary mouth is greater than the recent 5-year and 10-year average return of 5,300 and 9,800, respectively.
 The 2025 Kalama River spring Chinook forecast to the tributary mouth is similar to the recent 5-year and 10 year average return of 2,200 and 2,500, respectively.
 The 2025 Lewis River spring Chinook forecast to the tributary mouth is similar to the recent 5-year average return of 3,700 and greater than the 10-year average return of 2,600.
 The 2025 Wind River Spring Chinook forecast is greater than the recent 5-year and 10-year average return of 4,100 and 4,000, respectively.
 The 2025 Little White Salmon (LWS) River Spring Chinook forecast is similar to the recent 5-year average return of 7,400 and less than the recent 10-year average return of 8,100.
 The 2025 Klickitat River Spring Chinook forecast is similar to the recent 5-year average return of 1,300 and less than the recent 10-year average return of 1,500.

Managers also expect fewer Columbia summer kings than were forecast and actually returned last year.

As for sockeye, some 350,200 are expected to enter the big river, not far off of 2024’s prediction, which turned out to be way off as a record run of 761,682 actually came in.

Next up from WDFW and ODFW will be to issue preliminary Columbia fall Chinook expectations and how 2024’s runs performed ahead of more firm forecasts are issued for each of those stocks. Then in late February and early March, forecasts for Puget Sound and the Washington Coast will come out at the lead-in to the annual North of Falcon season-setting process. Part of that will involve federal fishery overseers’ annual “stoplight chart” of ocean conditions off of Newport greeting outmigrating smolts. Last week, they said indicators for salmon prey species in 2024 were at a 27-year low.