Tag Archives: 2018 forecast

2018 Columbia Fall Chinook Forecast Out

Columbia salmon managers say around 365,000 fall Chinook will come back to the big river in 2018, a dropoff from last year’s forecast and actual return.

GUIDE BOB REES THUMPS A COLUMBIA RIVER FALL CHINOOK CAUGHT IN THE BUOY 10 FISHERY DURING 2014’S SEASON. (ANDY WALGAMOTT)

The annual prediction from state, tribal and federal biologists is about half of the average run we’ve seen over the past decade. They say that lingering bad ocean conditions — damn you, Blob! — are probably the reason why.

As for the stock breakdown, as usual the strongest segment will be upriver brights, which spawn in the free-flowing Hanford Reach as well as Snake River and other inland tribs.

A total of 200,100 are predicted, down from last year’s actual run of 297,100 and forecast of 260,000.

Returns of Lower Columbia hatchery stocks are forecast at 62,400, which actually is about where the 2017 run came in, though lower than last year’s predicted 92,400.

Last year’s forecast was for 582,600 fall kings of all stocks, but only 475,900 returned.

The forsoothery builds on the outlook managers put out in December and will be used during the North of Falcon salmon-season-setting process for all of Washington and northern Oregon.

More Upriver Columbia Springers Expected In 2018

Columbia River salmon managers are forecasting a better spring Chinook run in 2018.

They’re expecting 166,700 bound for tributaries east of Bonneville Dam, according to a Facebook post by the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission.

SPENCER RHODES SHOWS OFF A WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE HATCHERY SPRING CHINOOK CAUGHT THIS SEASON. (FISHING PHOTO CONTEST)

The prediction, which was made by the U.S. v. Oregon Technical Advisory Committee last week, is for almost 51,000 more than actually returned this year, 115,822.

This year’s original preseason forecast was for 160,400, which may provide a gauge for how 2018 recreational fisheries will shape up.

Snake River Chinook are expected to come in twice as strong as they did in 2017, with 107,400 forecast.

Upper Columbia summer kings are forecast to be about as strong as this year, with 67,300 expected.

Unfortunately, it looks like another bum sockeye year, with just under 100,000 returning to the Okanogan/Okanagan, Lake Wenatchee and Central Idaho.

With a similar sized run this year, managers had to scrub fisheries on the Columbia from the Tri-Cities area up to Chief Joseph Dam to get enough fish back on the gravel and for hatchery broodstock programs.

State fishery managers will meet with representatives from the sportfishing world this Wednesday at ODFW’s Clackamas office to go over the forecasts.